The race for the trophy
The draw for the last 16 of the 2017/18 Champions League takes place on Monday, with teams from England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Portugal, Ukraine, Switzerland and Turkey awaiting their fate.
It's not a case of anyone being able to play anyone, however. The eight group winners will face the eight runners-up from the first stage of the tournament, with the caveat that sides cannot face opponents they have already played in this season's tournament, while clubs from the same country will be kept apart.
Such stipulations can make it difficult to work out potential ties, but that's exactly where we come in. Using data from Fan Seats, this slideshow reveals the likeliest last-16 opponents for each team left standing in the Champions League.
Sevilla
Most likely to face: Tottenham, Roma (18.85%)
Least likely to face: PSG, Besiktas (12.81%)
Other possibilities: Manchester City, Manchester United (18.33%)
Nine points was a good enough tally for Sevilla to advance to the round of 16 in Group E. It’s more likely than not that the Spanish side will face a Premier League club in a two-legged tie in February, with Tottenham, Manchester City and Manchester United all possibilities.
Turkey, France and Italy are other potential destinations for the Rojiblancos, who are unable to face Barcelona (same country) or Liverpool (same group).
Basel
Most likely to face: Tottenham, Liverpool, Roma (15.83%)
Least likely to face: Besiktas, PSG (11.3%)
Other possibilities: Manchester City (15.31%); Barcelona (14.58%)
Basel amassed 12 points to finish as runners-up behind Manchester United in Group A, sealing their passage to the knockout stage for the first time since the 2014/15 campaign.
A tie with Tottenham, Liverpool or Roma is most likely in the round of 16, although the percentage difference between all seven potential opponents is minimal. As well as the three aforementioned teams, PSG, Besiktas, Manchester City and Barcelona would probably all fancy their chances against the Swiss champions in February.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Most likely to face: Roma, Liverpool, Tottenham (15.83%)
Least likely to face: Besiktas, Porto (11.30%)
Other possibilities: Manchester United (15.31%); Barcelona (14.58%)
A 2-1 defeat of Manchester City – the first loss Pep Guardiola’s side suffered in 2017/18 – in gameweek six earned Shakhtar a place in the round of 16 as Group F runners-up.
There's a strong possibility they will face more Premier League opponents – Liverpool, Spurs and Man United re three of the four teams they're most likely to pull, with Roma the other and Barcelona, Porto and Besiktas also possible. Whoever they get, no side will relish a trip to displaced Shakhtar’s temporary base of the Metalist Stadium in Kharkiv.
Porto
Most likely to face: Tottenham, Roma, Liverpool (15.31%)
Least likely to face: PSG (10.8%)
Other possibilities: Manchester United, Manchester City (14.84%); Barcelona (13.54%)
A 5-2 victory over Ligue 1 champions Monaco on matchday six secured Porto’s place in the round of 16. As the second-placed side in Group G, Sergio Conceicao’s men will face one of seven table-toppers, with Tottenham, Roma or Liverpool the most probable adversaries.
PSG can’t be ruled out, though, while Manchester United, Manchester City and Barcelona are all real possibilities. The 2004 winners may have to do things the hard way if they’re to make it through to the quarter-finals for only the third time since that memorable triumph under Jose Mourinho.
Besiktas
Most likely to face: Chelsea (28.12%)
Least likely to face: Bayern Munich (10.83%)
Other possibilities: Real Madrid, Juventus, Sevilla (12.81%); Basel, Shakhtar Donetsk (11.3%)
In one of the most open segments of the group stage, Besiktas powered past Porto, RB Leipzig and Monaco to take top spot. Their form in recent months shows they shouldn’t be underestimated, although Chelsea – easily their most likely opponents in the last 16 – would certainly start as favourites if they were to lock horns with the Turks.
Besiktas will be keen to avoid the Blues, as well as Bayern Munich, Juventus and Real Madrid. Sevilla, Basel or Shakhtar Donetsk would represent a kinder draw.
Roma
Most likely to face: Real Madrid, Sevilla (18.85%)
Least likely to face: Bayern Munich, Porto (15.31%)
Other possibilities: Shakhtar Donetsk, Basel (15.83%)
Many expected Roma to drop out of the Champions League before the knockout stage when they were drawn alongside Atletico Madrid and Chelsea in Group C, but Eusebio Di Francesco instead guided the Italian outfit to first place.
That leaves the Giallorossi facing the prospect of a meeting with Real Madrid in the round of 16, with the defending champions and Sevilla their most likely opponents. Elsewhere, the respective chances of Roma drawing Porto, Bayern Munich, Basel and Shakhtar Donetsk are almost equal.
Bayern Munich
Most likely to face: Tottenham, Liverpool, Roma (15.31%)
Least likely to face: Besiktas (10.83%)
Other possibilities: Manchester City, Manchester United (14.82%); Barcelona (13.54%)
It’s now five seasons since Bayern last reached the Champions League final, when Jupp Heynckes led the Bavarians to victory over fellow Germans Borussia Dortmund in the Wembley showpiece. Heynckes is back in charge at the Allianz Arena until the end of the campaign, with Bayern targeting a sixth European Cup crown.
They usually draw Arsenal, but they're not available. Tottenham, Liverpool or Roma could stand in their way in the round of 16, while there’s a relatively slim chance of Besiktas being paired with Bayern. Barcelona, Manchester City and Manchester United are clubs Heynckes will probably hope to avoid.
Juventus
Most likely to face: Tottenham, Liverpool (18.85%)
Least likely to face: PSG, Besiktas (12.81%)
Other possibilities: Manchester City, Manchester United (18.33%)
Beaten finalists in 2015 and 2017, Juventus will be desperate to go one better in the Champions league this term. There’s a strong chance (74.36%, to be precise) the Italian giants will have to overcome English opposition to earn a place in the last eight, with Tottenham, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United four possible opponents for Max Allegri’s men in the last 16.
PSG and Besiktas could also be paired with Juve, who finished ahead of Sporting CP but behind Barcelona in Group D.
PSG
Most likely to face: Chelsea (28.12%)
Least likely to face: Porto (10.8%)
Other possibilities: Real Madrid, Juventus, Sevilla (12.81%); Shakhtar Donetsk, Basel (11.3%)
PSG’s response to being humiliated by Barcelona in last season’s Champions League was to go out and buy one of the Catalans’ best players. Neymar won’t be able to face his former club in the round of 16 as both teams topped their respective groups, but a clash with Chelsea-based compatriots David Luiz and Willian is a strong possibility.
Indeed, there’s almost a 30% chance of PSG drawing Chelsea in the next round, while Real Madrid, Juventus and Sevilla could also face Unai Emery’s men. One of Porto, Basel or Shakhtar Donetsk would no doubt be preferable for the Parisians.
Barcelona
Most likely to face: Chelsea (43.74%)
Least likely to face: Bayern Munich, Porto (13.54%)
Other possibilities: Shakhtar Donetsk, Basel (14.58%)
After beating Juventus to top spot in Group D, there’s a strong possibility that Barcelona boss Ernesto Valverde will be pitting his wits against former Bianconeri manager Antonio Conte in the round of 16 – the chances of the La Liga leaders facing Chelsea in the next round of the competition stand at almost 45%.
Bayern Munich, Porto, Basel and Shakhtar Donetsk could also be pulled out of the hat alongside the Catalan club, but a first game against Chelsea since 2012 could well be on the cards.
Real Madrid
Most likely to face: Liverpool, Roma (18.85%)
Least likely to face: Manchester City, Manchester United (18.33%)
Other possibilities: PSG, Besiktas (12.81%)
Having become the first club in the Champions League era to retain the continental crown, Madrid now have their eyes set on a hat-trick – a feat last achieved by Bayern Munich in the mid-1970s.
There’s a greater than one-in-two possibility of Madrid facing a Premier League side in the last 16, with Liverpool and the two Manchester clubs potential opponents for Zinedine Zidane’s charges. Roma, Besiktas and PSG have a combined chance of around 45% of drawing Madrid.
Tottenham
Most likely to face: Juventus, Sevilla (18.85%)
Least likely to face: Porto, Bayern Munich (15.31%)
Other possibilities: Shakhtar Donetsk, Basel (15.83%)
Tottenham accumulated more points (16) in the group stage than any other team, which is an even more impressive accomplishment when you remember they were drawn alongside Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund.
Spurs therefore have nothing to fear heading into the round of 16, but Mauricio Pochettino would probably still wish to avoid Juventus (an 18.85% chance) and Bayern Munich (15.31%). Sevilla, Porto, Basel and Shakhtar Donetsk are the north Londoners’ other potential opponents.
Manchester City
Most likely to face: Real Madrid, Juventus, Sevilla (18.33%)
Least likely to face: Bayern Munich (14.82%)
Other possibilities: Basel (15.31%), Porto (14.84%)
Manchester City made light work of Group F, winning their first five matches to wrap up top spot with a game to spare. Finishing first in your section in previous years would often ensure fellow favourites were avoided in the round of 16, but Pep Guardiola’s side have a 51.48% chance of playing either Bayern Munich, Juventus or Real Madrid in February.
That leaves a 48.52% possibility of City being drawn with Basel, Porto or Sevilla; none of those teams should be underestimated, but it’s safe to say that most City supporters will be holding out for a clash with one of those three - unless the fancy some big nights under the lights.
Chelsea
Most likely to face: Barcelona (43.74%)
Least likely to face: PSG, Besiktas (28.12%)
Other possibilities: N/A
Chelsea dominated their final group stage game against Atletico Madrid, but wastefulness in front of goal cost them top spot in Group C, with Roma squeezing into first place after Atleti left Stamford Bridge with a point.
Antonio Conte would have been frustrated by his team’s failure to get the victory they required, particularly as there are now only three possible last-16 ties available to the Blues. With fellow Premier League clubs Liverpool, Tottenham, Manchester City and Manchester United all out of reach, there’s a massive chance that Chelsea will be paired with Barcelona in the next round of the tournament.
Liverpool
Most likely to face: Juventus, Real Madrid (18.85%)
Least likely to face: Bayern Munich, Porto (15.31%)
Other possibilities: Shakhtar Donetsk, Basel (15.83%)
Only PSG (25) scored more goals than Liverpool’s 23 in the group stage, with a stunning 7-0 thrashing of Spartak Moscow in their final encounter carrying the Reds through in first place. Yet despite finishing at the top of Group E, there’s a 37.7% chance of Jurgen Klopp’s side facing one of last season’s finalists, Juventus or Real Madrid.
Bayern Munich are another team Liverpool will hope to avoid, with Basel, Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk all kinder alternatives.
Manchester United
Most likely to face: Real Madrid, Juventus, Sevilla (18.33%)
Least likely to face: Bayern Munich (14.82%)
Other possibilities: Shakhtar Donetsk (15.31%), Porto (14.84%)
United have had some memorable European tussles with both Real Madrid and Juventus in the past, and another could be on the cards in the round of 16 in February. There’s an equal chance of Jose Mourinho’s men being paired with Sevilla, while Bayern Munich are the least likely possibility at 14.82%.
Elsewhere, Mourinho’s former club Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk could come out of the hat alongside United, who will hope to avoid Madrid, Juve and Bayern.
