Post-international break points
The Premier League returns this weekend following the pause for international fixtures, with plenty of issues still be resolved at both ends of the table. All 20 teams will be raring to get going once more, but some have more reason to fear the return of club football than most.
Using data from BetStars, this slideshow compares Premier League clubs’ average points per game across the last five seasons with their points per game in matches immediately after an international break.
NB: Brighton and Huddersfield aren’t included due to a lack of data
18. Southampton (-32%)
With a 32% decrease in points gained per game after an international break, Southampton sit bottom of this ranking. The south coast side have continually struggled to recapture their rhythm after a fortnight off, which doesn’t bode particularly well for Saturday’s crunch trip to West Ham.
Saints have amassed just one point from a possible nine after this season’s previous international pauses, while in 2016-17 they won only one of four such encounters.
17. Liverpool (-31.5%)
Somewhat surprisingly, Liverpool – in relative terms – have an inferior record to 16 of the other 17 teams in this list. The Reds’ points-per-game ratio falls by almost a third after international breaks, from 1.87 to 1.28 across the last five campaigns.
Jurgen Klopp’s charges suffered their worst defeat of the 2017-18 campaign so far following the pause for national team fixtures in early September, when they lost 5-0 to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium.
16. Swansea (-16.6%)
Despite their revival under Carlos Carvalhal, Swansea aren’t yet out of trouble at the bottom of the Premier League. A trip to Manchester United is a daunting proposition at any stage of the season, but the prospect of an upset at Old Trafford this weekend is reduced further by the Swans’ poor record after international breaks.
15. West Ham (-15.1%)
Optimism is in short supply around the London Stadium at present, and West Ham's position in this list will do little to raise spirits ahead of Saturday's relegation six-pointer against fellow strugglers Southampton.
In their last five seasons in the Premier League, the Hammers' points-per-game rate has fallen by 15% compared to their average return in that time. The capital club will hope for a repeat of September's 2-0 win against Huddersfield this weekend, rather than the 2-0 defeat by Watford which followed last November's international break.
14. Stoke (-10.1%)
Stoke are up against it in their battle to avoid relegation from the Premier League this season, with the 19th-placed Potters three points adrift of safety ahead of a tough trip to Arsenal this weekend.
Their post-international break record doesn't make for particularly positive reading either, with Stoke having taken 10.1% fewer points per game in said fixtures compared to their overall accumulation rate. One point from an available nine after previous mid-season pauses in 2017-18 is another bad omen going into Sunday's game at the Emirates.
13. West Brom (-3.6%)
West Brom need a miracle to avoid relegation to the Championship this season, so Baggies fans will be disappointed to learn that their side tend to accrue fewer points than usual after an international break.
A 3.6% decrease isn't disastrous, but it still means the West Midlanders rank among the bottom six sides in the division. Given that West Brom have collected just one point from a possible nine after mid-season pauses in 2017-18, optimism will not be particularly high around The Hawthorns when Burnley visit on Saturday.
11. Tottenham (+0.8%)
With a slender 0.8% increase in points gained per game, Tottenham are the Premier League club whose results are least affected by an international break.
Indeed, there’s not much difference between Spurs’ record in post-international matches and their overall return in the last five campaign. This is reflected in the numbers for 2017-18, when the north Londoners have averaged two points per game after a mid-season pause and 2.03 overall.
10. Crystal Palace (+3.7%)
Palace remain locked in a relegation battle at present, but their position in this particular ranking is a great deal healthier. The south Londoners have experienced a slight upturn in points gained per game after an international weekend in the last five years, with their 3.7% increase enough for 10th place here.
A 2-1 victory over Chelsea following the September break was arguably Palace’s best result of the campaign so far, and Roy Hodgson will hope for more of the same when Liverpool visit Selhurst Park on Saturday.
8. Manchester United (+5.6%)
Manchester United may be English football’s most successful club in terms of league titles won, but they haven’t finished at the summit of the Premier League standings in the last five seasons.
Their points-per-game record has still been among the strongest in the division in that time, though, and the data shows they tend to fare particularly well following an international break. Having said that, it’s notable that Jose Mourinho’s men have only won of three previous post-international fixtures this term.
7. Arsenal (+7.9%)
Arsenal haven’t had too much cause for celebration on the domestic front this season, but their supporters will expect all three points when Stoke visit the Emirates Stadium on Sunday – and not just because the Potters are currently in the relegation zone.
Arsenal have taken 7.9% more points after international breaks compared to their overall record since 2013-14, which is bettered by just one member of the Premier League’s big six.
6. Burnley (+8.5%)
Despite their present position of seventh in the Premier League table, Burnley have fewer established internationals than many of their top-flight rivals.
Perhaps it’s therefore not a coincidence that the Clarets’ points-per-game record rises by 8.5% following a break, with Sean Dyche afforded the chance to work with a core group of his players on the training field. Upcoming opponents West Brom should consider themselves warned.
4. Chelsea (+10.2%)
With a 10.2% increase in their points-per-game record, Chelsea are the best performing big-six side in this particular category.
Sunday’s showdown against top-four rivals Tottenham will be a major test for the Blues, who have lost two games after an international break during Antonio Conte’s time in charge – both of which came against Crystal Palace. A third defeat this weekend could be fatal to Chelsea’s chances of a place in the Champions League.
2. Newcastle (+32.7%)
Newcastle face Huddersfield in a crunch relegation clash this weekend, and their supporters will take heart from their excellent record after the international break.
The Magpies average around a third more points per game following domestic pauses, although Rafael Benitez’s men were thrashed 4-1 by Manchester United after the most recent internationals in November.
1. Watford (+93.1%)
With a startling 93.1% improvement compared to their overall results in their last five top-flight seasons, Watford are the kings of the post-international encounters.
The Hornets have averaged 1.13 points per match in the period covered, but that figure rises to 2.18 after national team fixtures – for context, Manchester City’s average points per game in the last five seasons is 2.13. Bournemouth won’t relish their trip to Vicarage Road on Saturday.
