The Ballon d'Or power rankings are shaping up, with new favourites, as teams drop out of competitions and favourites establish themselves in others.
Time was that the Ballon d'Or was a lovely little end-of-year footnote, but has now ballooned (or should that be balloned? No?) to a degree of such apparent importance to some players that it is more important than the boring old trophies that get handed out for, you know, winning football matches and stuff.
In any case, now that we're into the final third of the 2024/25 season, excitement is building for who might land the 2025 Ballon d'Or - with a familiar face to Premier League viewers moving ahead of the pack.
The Ballon d'Or 2025 favourites
Ballon d’Or 2025 power ranking: The bookies’ odds for the award
All odds from Bet365.
1. Ousmane Dembele (4/11)
The era of Ousmane Dembele as a £100m player seemed to be over. Despite showing his quality for Barcelona, the Frenchman hadn't fully reached his potential.
This remontada is all PSG's, however. The Frenchman has been on fire this season with Les Parisiens sweeping the Treble, and Dembele the elder statesman in a youthful, free-flowing attack that has captivated all of Europe.
“His assistant coaches put the words ‘Ballon d'Or’ in his ear, and he's believed that he can get to that level, and he has,” Champions League football expert Guillem Ballague told FourFourTwo ahead of the Champions League final. “So for me, certainly with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, those are the three candidates for the Ballon d'Or."
If Dembélé does something extraordinary in the final, the Ballon d'Or is handed out to him.
Guillem Ballague
OK, so Dembele didn't actually score against Inter Milan in the historic 5-0 romp in Munich – but he did basically everything but.
Ballons d'Or don't tend to be handed out for pressing but Dembele was the most instrumental man in navy blue off the ball for Luis Enrique's side, and after a season of 48 goals and assists across 49 games, it's been a near-perfect return for the 28-year-old.
BDO voters love a story – and has there been any better this season? The reinvention of Dembele has been one of European football's most intriguing, seemingly wrapped up with a bow at the end. There's a reason he's now odds-on favourite.
FourFourTwo's verdict: As the frontman of this Parisian superteam, there's perhaps no more fitting player to receive the award than Dembele – the only thing troubling his cause? No goal on the biggest stage of all…
2. Lamine Yamal (7/2)
Lamine Yamal could become the first-ever teenager to lift the Ballon d'Or if he's crowned the best player on Earth in Paris later this year – and yes, there's a fair case for it.
If you were voting purely on ability, excitement and getting bums off seats, you'd probably pick Yamal, was was ranked at no.1 in FourFourTwo's list of the most exciting teenagers to watch at the start of the season.
Yes, he won La Liga – but that may not be enough for the main award. BDO winners in recent seasons tended to have won the Champions League final or World Cup final – and regardless, Raphinha is perhaps still the posterboy of 2024/25 for Barça.
The Kopa Trophy is a shoo-in for Yamal, though…
FourFourTwo's verdict: As fantastic as Yamal has been this season, it would be a major shock if the Barcelona star were to scoop the gong this time around. Time is on his side, however, to put it mildly…
=3. Mohamed Salah (10/1)
55 goals and assists in 52 games should be enough to win any man the Ballon d'Or – it was certainly enough for the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi back in the day.
Salah has undeniably had one of the all-time great seasons in English football and is more than worthy of being just the second man from Africa to win the Ballon d'Or – after George Weah – and the first from the Arab world.
But though Liverpool won the Premier League title at a canter, the sad fact is that the Reds and their Egyptian King may not have done enough in the second half of the season: a last-16 exit in the Champions League has hindered Salah hugely, as have just four league goals from March onwards.
It would be cruel if so – but Liverpool fans will certainly be hoping that the story of the Reds' season is enough to capture the imagination.
FourFourTwo's verdict: Ahh, Mo – if all things were equal, you'd have the gong, as the best player in the world this season by a mile. But given the weight that winning the Champions League carries, it's hard to see the voters turn a blind eye to Liverpool's last-16 loss. File this one in future BDO robberies, in our eyes…
=3. Raphinha (10/1)
Real Madrid infamously eschewed the entire Ballon d’Or ceremony last year on hearing news that Rodri had pipped Vini Jr to the main prize.
What might they do if, perish the thought, a Barcelona star bags it this time? Raphinha had his struggles when he first arrived in Catalonia but with Hansi Flick making him the catalyst to a La Liga title, the former Leeds United man is as good a bet as any to do what Vinicius couldn't and become the first Brazilian since Kaka to lift this prize.
It feels like a five-star effervescent season for Raphinha, who feels like a leader.
Graham Hunter
“I think you've got a guy at the peak of his athletic abilities with a wholly new psychological outlook on himself and his profession, with a coach who has told him – not just demonstrated to him – but told him how much faith he has in him,” Spanish football expert Graham Hunter told FourFourTwo of Raphinha's quest for the Champions League.
“That combined has to make this a five-star effervescent season for Raphinha, who feels like a leader and who's taking responsibility.”
Raphinha has certainly put up the numbers with 59 goals and assists in 57 appearances this season – but once again, Barça's failure to crack a first Champions League in 10 years might have just put the nail in the coffin for any of their players to scoop a Ballon d'Or. None have managed it since Messi.
FourFourTwo's verdict: Raphinha perhaps needs to put up superstar numbers for another couple of seasons before he's in with a shout of winning the BDO purely based on his output. His bid for the award was based on Barcelona potentially scooping a European title – so it's tough to see him still winning a Ballon d'Or without it.
5. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (12/1)
Suppose you're giving out the Ballon d'Or purely based on trophy haul. In that case, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will win the award for not just being central to Paris Saint-Germain's Treble… but winning a Serie A medal with Napoli.
The Georgian's midseason switch from Italy to France could go one of two ways: either the voters will decide that he the integral figure to both sides winning silverware or neither.
Kvaratskhelia got his goal in the final to certainly aid his cause – and actually, fifth for the award feels like long odds. Perhaps he and Dembele will split the vote for those wanting to honour a PSG star but given Kvara's output for this side, he's as good a bet from any of Luis Enrique's men.
FourFourTwo's verdict: If FourFourTwo were gamblers, this would be who we put our money on: long enough odds that it's a decent return without it being plainly obvious that Kvaradona's going to win the prize. And he might just be seen as the one who changed it all for PSG this season…
The full list of Ballon d'Or 2025 odds
4/11 | Ousmane Dembele |
7/2 | Lamine Yamal |
10/1 | Mohamed Salah |
10/1 | Raphinha |
12/1 | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
25/1 | Lautaro Martinez |
25/1 | Pedri |
33/1 | Desire Doue |
33/1 | Gianluigi Donnarumma |
50/1 | Achraf Hakimi |
Beyond the five favourites for the Ballon d'Or, there are three more Paris Saint-Germain players who could well be in with a shout of winning the award.
Desire Doue's two goals and an assist in Munich might be the defining memory of the club's Treble-winning campaign but the Frenchman is a little young – and hasn't been an automatic pick all season. Gianluigi Donnarumma has been in fine fettle too, but only one goalkeeper has ever won this gong, so it would certainly be a turn-up for the custodian to get it after a 5-0 final win.
That just leaves Achraf Hakimi, who might be a more common choice than some think, thanks to his goal in the final and his role as one of the leaders in PSG's side. At 50/1, it's worth sticking a quid on, right?
FAQs
How is the Ballon d'Or chosen
Winners are decided by a panel of international journalists, with criteria focusing on individual performance, team achievements, and a player's class and fair play throughout the season (August to July). Recent changes emphasise the football season over the calendar year.
When is the 2025 ceremony for the Ballon d'Or?
The 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled for September 22, 2025, at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris. Nominees are expected to be announced in August, building anticipation for football's most prestigious individual award.
Does winning the Champions League influence the Ballon d'Or voting?
Absolutely. The Champions League is a significant factor. Players who lead their teams to European glory often gain considerable momentum for the Ballon d'Or, as demonstrated by Dembele's recent surge in favouritism after PSG's UCL win.
Are there any betting insights for the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Betting markets currently show Ousmane Dembele as a strong favourite with Lamine Yamal also highly rated. Odds fluctuate based on player performance and team success, so keep an eye on how the rest of the year unfolds.
What's the difference between the Ballon d'Or and other player awards?
The Ballon d'Or, presented by France Football, is arguably the most prestigious individual award, voted on by journalists. Other awards, like FIFA's The Best, have different voting panels (coaches, captains, fans) and may have slightly different criteria, making the Ballon d'Or unique.
How much do players receive for winning the Ballon d'Or?
The Ballon d'Or doesn't actually have any money tied to it. However, winning the award can lead to significant opportunities for the player involved and considerable indirect financial gain.
