Euro 2024: Scotland permutations and what they need vs Hungary to qualify for knockout stage

Scotland's Anthony Ralston, Andy Robertson and Billy Gilmour applaud the fans after Euro 2024 defeat to Germany.
Scotland still have hopes of making it to the last 16 of Euro 2024 (Image credit: Craig Williamson/SNS Group via Getty Images)

Scotland know they have it all on the line in their final group game of Euro 2024 if they don’t want to make an immediate exit from the tournament.

The Scots have never before reached the knockout stages of a major competition, but still harbour hopes of making history when they take on their final Group A rivals Hungary in Sunday night’s game.

Scotland were battered 5-1 by hosts Germany in their opening game of Euro 2024 before sharing a 1-1 draw with Switzerland, meaning it all comes down to their third and final clash. So what do they need to progress to the last 16? 

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What Scotland need to get to the Euro 2024 knockout stages

Scotland cannot possibly come top of their group, and they are very unlikely to finish in second place.

The only way that can happen is if they beat Hungary, Germany beat Switzerland, and the two scorelines mean Scotland make up a six-goal swing in goal difference required to overtake the Swiss (their draw means head-to-head record is irrelevant).

Scotland’s more realistic hope is to beat Hungary and hope that’s enough to put them through as one of the four best third-placed teams across all six groups. History suggests that is likely to be the case, as no side has ever got at least four points and failed to progress since the tournament expanded to 24 teams in 2016; however, we cannot declare it a mathematical certainty at this stage.

Fans of Scotland show their support prior to the UEFA EURO 2024 group stage match between Scotland and Switzerland at Cologne Stadium on June 19, 2024 in Cologne, Germany. (

The Tartan Army would love to finally see their side in a knockout game (Image credit: Getty Images)

If Scotland lose to Hungary, they will definitely finish bottom of the group and will be eliminated.

If Steve Clarke’s side claim a point against Hungary, they will almost certainly be out too, unless there is some ridiculous turn of events in at least two of the other groups that mean at least two other third-placed sides finish with two points or fewer – which is unlikely to happen. (Mind you, it would happen in Group B if Spain and Italy both avoid defeat in their remaining games).

Even then, Scotland’s goal difference could probably put them at a significant disadvantage when compared with any other third-placed sides who finished with two points.

That means it is probably win or bust for Scotland in their bid to finally end their wait for knockout football at a major tournament.

Scotland Euro 2024 group stage scenarios

IF SCOTLAND WIN: They finish third with four points unless Switzerland lose to Germany and Scotland are able to make up a six-goal swing in goal difference on Switzerland. Scotland would then progress if at least two other third-placed sides in the other groups end up with an inferior record.

IF SCOTLAND DRAW: They definitely finish third with two points, and must then hope that at least two other third-placed sides in the other groups end up with a worse record.

IF SCOTLAND LOSE: They definitely finish bottom of the group and are eliminated. 

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More Euro 2024 stories

We have a guide on how to get Euro 2024 tickets if you're still looking to go to the tournament. Can’t make it out there? Don’t worry: here’s how to watch Euro 2024 live streams from anywhere in the world

We have the run-down on Euro 2024 stadiums, with info on host cities, capacities, and everything you need to know.

We also have a list of the Euro 2024 favourites, with best odds on nations to win European Championship in Germany, while these are the best Euros games ever and these are the best pundits ever 

Steven Chicken

Steven Chicken has been working as a football writer since 2009, taking in stints with Football365 and the Huddersfield Examiner. Steven still covers Huddersfield Town home and away for his own publication, WeAreTerriers.com. Steven is a two-time nominee for Regional Journalist of the Year at the prestigious British Sports Journalism Awards, making the shortlist in 2020 and 2023.