If predictability can be a problem in all too many competitions in football, the Europa League may be an exception. Pre-season favourites can win many prizes, but rarely this one. The tag can be less significant in a hybrid format that gets a mid-season infusion of exiles from the Champions League.
But rewind three months and, for some, the favourites to win the Europa League were Leicester. For others, Napoli. Now the knockout stages seem to begin earlier. Either Leicester or Napoli will end the other’s participation when they meet on Thursday. Leicester top Group C before kick-off but may soon be rebranded as the favourites to win the Europa Conference League.
It would form part of a bigger story of underachievement. Brendan Rodgers has been influenced by European football (Spanish, in particular) more than many a British coach but his record in continental competition remains resolutely undistinguished. Perhaps his past was ignored when Leicester got such a lofty billing.
Rodgers is in his eighth European campaign. He is yet to manage in the last 16 of either the Champions League or the Europa League. Admittedly, Liverpool reached the final of the latter in 2015/16, but Rodgers only oversaw two underwhelming draws before he was sacked. Progress instead stemmed from Jurgen Klopp’s catalytic powers.
Rodgers’ reunion with Steven Gerrard on Sunday, when Leicester lost to Aston Villa, was a reminder of the time he left the Liverpool captain on the bench away at Real Madrid in 2014 to prioritise a Premier League game they then lost. They came third in a Champions League pool, below Basel; their only win came against Ludogorets.
Over the years, Rodgers has exited European competitions, either directly or by finishing below them in groups, to Zenit St Petersburg, Basel, Besiktas, Zenit again, AEK Athens, Valencia and Slavia Prague. It is not overburdening his sides with expectation to suggest they ought to have overcome most of them.
It is harder to fault him for failing to qualify from Celtic’s Champions League groups containing Barcelona and Manchester City (in 2016-17) and Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain (the following year). Criticism could instead be focused on meagre hauls of one win (against Anderlecht) in 12 games and six points from a possible 36, along with the defensive generosity that meant his sides conceded 34 times. There is a broader tale about the gulf between the Scottish Premiership and the elite leagues growing but Gordon Strachan and, in his first spell, Neil Lennon brought more great European nights to Celtic Park.
At Leicester, Rodgers has proved more adept at beating England’s best than Europe’s second-tier teams. City’s initial status as favourites stemmed from the overachievement in securing back-to-back fifth-place finishes and winning the FA Cup. There can be a particularly awkward juggling act for those without the resources of the superpowers and Rodgers fielded a weakened team when Leicester lost to Slavia last season while Jamie Vardy is yet to start in Europe this season.
Perhaps Leicester’s mediocre Premier League form, meaning a top-four finish is off the cards, increases the importance of the game with Napoli. Maybe it will have an added pertinence for Rodgers, though it feels a little odd that his mediocre European record rarely seems to be mentioned amid talk bigger clubs want him. Maybe it should be a deterrent.
The more immediate concern is salvaging a season that is going awry. The combination of a prolific Napoli team and Rodgers’ porous defence may bode badly; that Leicester lost a 2-0 lead to draw against the Serie A side at the King Power Stadium could ultimately cost them though a defeat in Poland to a Legia Warsaw side currently 16th in their domestic division was the more damning and potentially damaging result.
But while Group C feels the toughest pool this year, a failure to get a top-two finish may rank as Rodgers’ lowest ebb in Europe. And while his record involves three very different clubs, along with various circumstances and personnel, it is no longer a small sample size. Ejection from the Europa League would seem part of a wider problem.
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