England are close to ensuring themselves of a place in the knockout stages of Euro 2024 despite a pair of disappointing performances in their opening two games.
Gareth Southgate’s side sit top of Group C going into the final round of fixtures after seeing out a 1-0 win over Serbia, thanks to Jude Bellingham’s early headed goal, and then being held to a 1-1 draw by Denmark after Morten Hjulmand cancelled out Harry Kane’s opener before the break.
That leaves just Slovenia to play in England’s final group game in Tuesday evening’s 9pm kick-off (8pm UK time), with the other two sides in the group simultaneously facing off to determine the final standings. So what do England need to go through?
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What England need to get to the Euro 2024 knockout stages
With four points already in the bag, England sit two points ahead of Denmark and Slovenia – who shared a draw in the opening game – and three ahead of Serbia, who got their only point so far by drawing with Slovenia.
That means that a win over Slovenia would put England through as Group C winners, while a draw would be enough to guarantee them at least second place in their group, regardless what happens in the Denmark vs Serbia game.
The only way England can end up finishing third in the group is if Slovenia and Denmark both win on Tuesday night. That’s because although England and Serbia would be level on points in the event of a Serbia win, England have the superior head-to-head record, which takes precedence over goal difference in the Euro 2024 group stage.
Progress to the last 16 is not guaranteed, then, as it’s possible that England could finish third in the group and fail to go through as one of the best third-placed teams.
However, that is unlikely: since the Euros expanded to include 24 teams in 2016, every team that has claimed at least four points has gone through to the next round, even if only as one of the four best third-placed sides. We may get a slightly better idea of what England would need in that scenario once the second set of group fixtures has been completed.
England cannot finish bottom of their group no matter what happens: all three teams below them cannot win their games, after all.
Full last 16 permutations can be read HERE.
England Euro 2024 group stage scenarios
IF ENGLAND WIN: Through as group winners.
IF ENGLAND DRAW: Definitely through, and would be group winners unless Denmark also win, in which case England and Denmark would be separated on i) goal difference, ii) goals scored, iii) disciplinary record. If they still could not be separated, Denmark would top the group based on their qualifiers ranking.
IF ENGLAND LOSE: Definitely through unless Denmark win and England are not one of the four best third-placed teams across all six groups.
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