Arsenal are no strangers to seismic transfer targets. They're not even strangers to the idea of landing a huge players from Real Madrid.
Mesut Ozil proved that when he became the Gunners' record signing from Los Blancos in 2013 for a whopping £42.5 million: but he was of an age when Arsenal were regularly linked with Karim Benzema and Sami Khedira. The Gunners were credited with more than a passing interest in Kylian Mbappe when he exploded onto the scene; Luis Suarez's release clause was even triggered.
To see Vinicius Jr at the Emirates Stadium would be groundbreaking. To see him linked with the move is not, if you consider the last 15 years. But to see Mikel Arteta's side so deep into a saga with such a huge talent? That's very telling.
Arsenal control their own narratives now: they wouldn't have let the Vinicius Jr saga get out unless they have confidence
Arsene Wenger had a few cliches, and chief among them was the hindsight that Arsenal could well have signed just about every elite talent under the sun.
Cristiano Ronaldo was on the radar before Manchester United gazumped them; Zlatan Ibrahimovic had a trial; Lionel Messi was among the Barcelona throng that Wenger scouted when he eventually signed Cesc Fabregas. It used to grate on Gooners that the club missed out on quite so many superstars – and that their manager was so keen to admit it.
But while Arsenal very famously failed to land the likes of Eden Hazard, N'Golo Kante, Gonzalo Higuain and others, things are different these days. Manager Mikel Arteta had a few setbacks in trying to sign the likes of Dusan Vlahovic and Lisandro Martinez – but since the Gunners returned to the Champions League, they haven't been involved in these big-name transfer sagas unless things are genuinely close.
Arsenal's name rarely appears in bidding wars these days. They were nowhere to be seen when Jude Bellingham was leaving Borussia Dortmund, when Alexander Isak moved to Liverpool or when Bernardo Silva went to Real Madrid this summer – despite noted interest over the years in all three players.
Instead, the players Arsenal tend to be heavily linked with have only been when a lot of groundwork has been laid. Mykhailo Mudryk was said to be “singularly focused” on Arsenal before pivoting Chelsea. Moises Caicedo posted a farewell to Brighton fans on social media, after Arsenal bids. An agreement with Benjamin Sesko, meanwhile, was no issue: Arsenal only moved onto Viktor Gyokeres when it became clear RB Leipzig wouldn't budge enough in their valuation. It was a similar story for both Jeremy Monga and Morgan Rogers this summer.
Let's be clear: Arsenal haven't suddenly started landing every player they set their eyes on, with those aforementioned five as proof. What it does prove, however, is that Arteta only wants those who want Arsenal.
This isn't a situation like Raphinha in 2022, where Arsenal will submit a bid to Real Madrid for Vinicius Jr and hope for the best. They're not getting strung along here. Even if Vini decides to remain at Real, his entourage have given strong indication to Arsenal that he is considering their move – otherwise, it simply wouldn't have gotten this far.
Is Vinicius Jr really unsellable from Real Madrid's perspective?
Vinicius Jr is one of the best players on Earth right now. The perspective from fans is that Real Madrid are not in the business of letting players like that leave.
Except, they are – and they have been for a while now. Real were happy to let Cristiano Ronaldo join Juventus for a monster transfer fee, in one of the most shocking transfers of any player over 30 in the last decade. They signed off on Ozil to Arsenal. They let Angel Di Maria leave for Manchester United.
They received an offer too good to refuse when United came in for Casemiro. The same has to be said of Raphael Varane. Karim Benzema may have stayed another year or two – Sergio Ramos, too – if not for interest elsewhere. President Florentino Perez knows that sentimentality is a defect found on the losing side.
Granted, Vinicius Jr is still in his prime – perhaps even approaching it – and Real are on the back foot for a few reasons. They risk losing the Brazilian for free next summer if they hang onto him without him committing to a new contract. They aren't used to players in their prime considering jumping ship to the Premier League. Regardless of their usual stance, there will be reluctance in letting go of a player who has scored two Champions League final goals after two trophyless seasons.
Jose Mourinho will likely want to keep hold of his no.7 – but there is almost certainly a recognition from the 15-time European champions that having two passengers in a high press (the other being Kylian Mbappe) has held Real back in the last couple of seasons. The Bernabeu is home to two world-class left-sided attackers – and if you're going to let go of one of them, it won't be Mbappe.
Vinicius Jr to Arsenal is a gamble – because it risks everything Arteta's built
Arsenal won the Premier League without a killer in attack. They reached the Champions League final conceding a mere handful of goals in open play. They're by no means the best team in Europe overall – but they are the best by a mile defensively.
And that extends beyond the partnership of Gabriel and William Saliba. It's more than just having Declan Rice screening the backline and having full-backs who are natural defenders: Arteta demands donkey work from the attackers.
Arsenal don't have an Erling Haaland. Viktor Gyokeres and Kai Havertz instead are hard runners who will press, keep up the intensity and look to run themselves into the ground for the cause. Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke, similarly, are hardly prolific – but they put in the work ethic. Even Martin Odegaard is a far cry from a luxury no.10, with his importance to Arteta not measured by his chance creation but how he leads the team out of possession.
As much as Arsenal are in desperate need of a superstar left-winger to give them balance, create something from nothing and to give them a spark against a Paris Saint-Germain, it comes with a risk. This is a well-oiled machine that attacks and defends as one, with plenty of chances coming from turnovers in the final third and a humility among the group meaning that goals are shared and big injuries to key players don't result in too much of a drop-off from the overall performance.
Vinicius Jr threatens that. He is not a typical Arteta player off the ball. Arsenal would have to adapt to his game as he would to his new club: that's something that everyone knows, though to what extent, none of us are sure. It is a calculated gamble to bring in a star of Vini's quality – but Arteta would be looking to succeed where a similar coach in Xabi Alonso failed to.
Yet Arteta has worked superstars into his team before. People sometimes overlook that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang gave him hard work out of possession, before the pair's fallout. Even Ebere Eze and Gyokeres have had to come on leaps and bounds in their work off the ball.
Don't be surprised if this deal is close. Don't be surprised if Vinicius has bought into Arsenal – both as a move, and tactically. This is a different kind of Arsenal to the one that signed Mesut Ozil all those years ago, after all.
