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Could Everton really be relegated? Analysing their final 10 Premier League games of the season

Frank Lampard, Everton
(Image credit: Getty Images)

Everton are a mainstay of the Premier League, and have the second-longest record in the top-flight in English football.

The Toffees have been a top-tier club since 1955 – bettering the records of Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea and local rivals Liverpool.

But with just three points separating them from the relegation zone, and just one with in their last 11 league matches, dropping into the Championship is starting to be a real possibility. Defeat away to West Ham on Sunday afternoon leaves them eyeing up a tough fixture list over the next six weeks.

Frank Lampard's side do have two games in hand over Norwich and Watford, though they arguably have the hardest run-in of any of the relegation battlers.

Here, FourFourTwo takes you through each of Everton's final Premier League 10 matches of the season...

April 6: Burnley (away)

Arguably the biggest game of the run-in comes first. While Everton sit four points above Burnley, the Clarets are the only team below them not have played more games. A defeat in Lancashire would leave both Burnley and Watford within one win of Lampard's side.

The good news for Bluenoses is that Burnley have an even worse recent form than themselves, and Turf Moor is far from the tough place to travel it has been in recent years – they sit 18th in the table when only home games are included. 

But then again, Everton are bottom of the away table. It's between the stoppable force and the moveable object.

Verdict: Everton's best chance of a win from here on. We'll plump for a draw.

April 9: Manchester United (home)

Ralf Rangnick's inconsistent Man United are almost impossible to predict – but failing to overcome this Everton side could well be a new low point for them this season. This is probably a home win.

Verdict: Everton lose.

TBD: Crystal Palace (home)

This game is only postponed because Crystal Palace are in the FA Cup semi-finals, and they're only in the FA Cup semi-finals because they recently spanked Everton 4-0 in the quarter-finals. Whenever this game is played, the Eagles will be going in favourites.

Verdict: Everton lose.

TBD: Watford (away)

This must be the one other game, after Burnley, that Everton fans must be eyeing up. Get two wins out of those games, and they are surely safe. Lose either, and they will surely be in the relegation zone, looking for a way out, rather than precariously hovering above it.

With recent form only marginally better than Everton, this is too close to call.

Verdict: Let's say a draw.

April 20: Leicester (home)

Another inconsistent opponent, but this time at home. 

Verdict: We'll plump for an Everton win here, just because the law of averages determines they'll get at least one somewhere.

April 24: Liverpool (away)

Yeah, ok.

Verdict: Not a chance.

May 1: Chelsea (home)

The Blues may have just suffered a miserable 4-1 home defeat to Brentford, but Everton are no Brentford right now.

Depending on when the Palace game is re-arranged for, this could be Everton's final game at Goodison this season, and we've already discussed their away record in 2021/22. If they've not picked up points by now, well...

Verdict: Chelsea win.

May 7: Leicester (away)

Following on from their defeat at Goodison (see FFT's confident prediction for April 20), Leicester will be out for revenge here.

Verdict: Foxes run riot.

May 15: Brentford (away)

Once again, we simply have to return to Everton's away record. They have just six points on the road at the time of writing (three less than Norwich) and just a single win. They've shipped 30 goals from 14 games. There's really not much point us betting against that.

Verdict: Brentford win.

May 22: Arsenal (away)

Latest FourFourTwo cover stars Arsenal are leading the running for the final Champions League spot, and may need this game to seal qualification. If Everton come into this one needing points, you've got to worry for them.

Verdict: Three points to Arsenal.

Conclusion

This leaves Everton with just five more points this season (though those Burnley and Watford games are key, of course).

That would put Lampard's side on 30 points which, while it would be enough for survival in exactly one of the previous 29 Premier League seasons (last year, when 18th place Fulham recorded 28 points) would still be the lowest points haul of any team to avoid relegation if it's enough to keep them up.

In short: how worried should Everton fans be? Well, really worried.

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Conor Pope is the Online Editor of FourFourTwo, overseeing all digital content, and joined the team in February 2019. He supports Blackburn Rovers and holds a season ticket with south London non-league side Dulwich Hamlet. His main football passions include Tugay, the San Siro and only using a winter ball when it snows.