Conversion rates
Attackers rack up goals in different fashions. Sergio Aguero, the Premier League’s third-highest scorer so far this season, has taken 93 shots. Mohamed Salah, currently leading the Golden Boot race, has pulled the trigger on 118 occasions. Then there’s Harry Kane, who’s tried his luck 162 times.
So, when we reveal the 20 players with the best shots-to-goal conversion rates in the Premier League this season, you can guess which of those three will be missing. Let’s start the countdown…
Please note: Penalties don't count here. Sorry, Luka Milivojevic.
20. Marko Arnautovic (West Ham)
15.6% shot conversion (7 goals)
After he swapped Stoke (erstwhile mid-table regulars now locked in a relegation battle under a dour Scotsman) for West Ham (erstwhile mid-table regulars now locked in a relegation battle under a dour Scotsman), Arnautovic’s early performances showed why most clubs don’t break their transfer record for a 28-year-old winger regularly described as 'mercurial'.
Then David Moyes played Arnautovic as a striker instead and the Austrian scored or assisted nine goals in his first seven games leading the line, following one in 12 before that. Looks like that did the trick.
19. Steve Mounie (Huddersfield)
16.2% shot conversion (6 goals)
Mounie hit the ground running after joining Huddersfield last summer, scoring twice on debut in a 3-0 victory over Frank de Boer’s Crystal Palace (doesn’t August feel like a long time ago?).
Since then, the Benin international has shared striking duties with Laurent Depoitre, with the pair having started 16 league games each. Mounie edges his team-mate in shot conversion and goals, though, with his six strikes representing a 16.2% conversion rate.
18. Riyad Mahrez (Leicester)
16.4% shot conversion (10 goals)
It’s been a topsy-turvy few years for Mahrez – albeit with more topsy than turvy, particular as he’s now refocused following a disappointing 2016-17 and failed move to Manchester City in January of this year.
Merely watching the Algeria international is enough to show he’s returning to the form which earned him the PFA Player of the Year award in 2015-16, but the statistics certainly back up that impression. Mahrez is finding the target with 46% of his shots, while his conversion rate is more than double what it was last term.
17. Abdoulaye Doucoure (Watford)
16.7% shot conversion (7 goals)
You’d usually expect strikers to dominate a countdown of the Premier League’s best converters, largely due to the fact their shots tend to come from better positions. Nevertheless, it’s still a surprise to see that Doucoure is one of only two midfielders in the top 20.
Watford’s leading scorer has played every minute except for the 90 he spent suspended, and 2017-18 is already the most prolific season of his career. It’s therefore no surprise that several bigger clubs are rumoured to be interested in prising him away from Vicarage Road.
16. Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
17.0% shot conversion (9 goals)
Hazard is an incredibly gifted footballer, but it could be argued that he should be more efficient in the final third. If you take out the converted penalties which contribute to a fifth of his Premier League goals, the Belgium international has averaged a goal or assist every 172 minutes since arriving at Chelsea.
Again discounting penalties, Hazard’s shot conversion has risen from 13% pre-Antonio Conte to 19% last season and 17% this. It will be interesting to see how he fares in 2018-19 – if he’s still at Stamford Bridge, that is.
=14. David Silva (Manchester City)
17.4% shot conversion (8 goals)
Silva is joint-third in the assists charts this term having laid on nine goals for his Manchester City team-mates, but then he’s always been a creator par excellence. He’s become more of a goal threat himself this term, though; only in 2014-15 did the Spaniard score more often (12 times) and more efficiently (18% shot conversion).
Silva is now 32 years old and, provided he stays put, next season will be his ninth in the Premier League. It’s time to start talking about the former Valencia man as one of the greatest players the division has ever seen.
=14. Leroy Sane (Manchester City)
17.4% shot conversion (8 goals)
That Sane is one of five Manchester City players in this top 20 speaks volumes for both the quality and the style of football introduced by Pep Guardiola. Put simply, his players are more regularly in positions to take shots with a high Expected Goals (xG) value.
On top of his eight goals, Sane is second in the Premier League assists charts with 11, behind only Kevin De Bruyne. He’s had a fantastic season for Pep Guardiola’s men, who could go on to break the division’s record points total in the coming weeks.
13. Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United)
18.2% shot conversion (14 goals)
Nine of the Premier League’s top 10 scorers are outperforming their xG data. In particular, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino sharing 42 goals from a combined xG of 30 is one reason for Liverpool’s strong season.
The exception is Lukaku. But given that he has scored 14 goals and ‘should’ have scored 14.02, we’ll let him off. At least his shot conversion is pretty good, ranking him 13th in the league’s overall standings.
12. Callum Wilson (Bournemouth)
18.4% shot conversion (7 goals)
Wilson can go quiet for long periods – he’s on a six-game run of zero goals and assists for the second time this campaign – and then he’ll suddenly strike and decide a result.
Against Arsenal at the Vitality Stadium, the 26-year-old equalised with his only shot as the Cherries won 2-1. At Chelsea fortnight later, he opened the scoring with his only shot on target as his side triumphed 3-0. When Wilson scores, he tends to make the difference.
11. Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
18.5% shot conversion (12 goals)
Son’s contribution to Tottenham’s season deserves more appreciation. On top of his movement and counter-attacking ability, a dozen goals from 22 starts is a very healthy return, and a high shot conversion proves the fact he gets into terrific attacking positions for a winger.
Harry Kane’s injury ahead of meetings with Chelsea and Manchester City means that Spurs need their South Korean star to shoulder the goal burden of a man he called “the best player in the world”. No pressure, then.
10. Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
18.9% shot conversion (17 goals)
Tenth place seems rather low for one of the Premier League’s most clinical strikers, but in fact Aguero’s hit rate is on the rise. With penalties taken out of the equation, the Argentine’s conversion was down to just 12% last term, although spectators didn’t need us to tell them he was in uncharacteristically wasteful form.
In 2017-18, the old Aguero is back. Which is a good thing, because Gabriel Jesus is desperate to get into Pep Guardiola’s starting XI.
9. Roberto Firmino (Liverpool)
19.1% shot conversion (13 goals)
Firmino has played as many games as team-mate Mohamed Salah, yet he’s scored half as many as the Egypt international. That’s because the Brazilian, despite being deployed centrally, is primarily a link-up man who’s tasked with bringing the best out of his attacking team-mates.
Firmino’s high shot conversion is partly due to the fact he doesn't particularly like to shoot unless he’s close to goal. More than a third of his penalty-box shots have come from less than six yards out; only Harry Kane has had more attempts from that distance.
=7. Anthony Martial (Manchester United)
19.5% shot conversion (8 goals)
Remember when Martial, like Rashford, was considered a striker rather than a winger? The Frenchman clearly does. At 1.6, he averages fewer shots per game than Arsenal’s holding midfielder Granit Xhaka, but the Manchester United man still finds the net with some regularity.
Eight goals from 41 shots isn’t bad, although it’s not been enough to persuade Jose Mourinho that Martial should be a permanent fixture in his side’s starting line-up.
=7. Jesse Lingard (Manchester United)
19.5% shot conversion (8 goals)
Lingard, you’ll be shocked to learn, has eight goals from 41 shots in the Premier League this term – and all of those efforts have come in the last four months. They’ve rarely been meaningless goals either, ranging from a headed winner past Chelsea to braces against Arsenal and Burnley.
Lingard has been Manchester United’s surprise package in 2017-18, establishing himself as a key part of Jose Mourinho’s armoury having begun the campaign as a squad player. A 19.5% conversion rate is evidence of his value.
6. Glenn Murray (Brighton)
20.0% shot conversion (7 goals)
Eleven goals for Brighton prompted rumours of a shock World Cup call-up for the 34-year-old; although he’s not yet been handed his England debut, Murray could yet sneak his way into Gareth Southgate’s thinking (but probably won't, if we're being realistic).
Converted penalties have contributed to that tally: if we hadn’t discounted all spot-kicks, Murray would be at the very top of this list, having netted with 27.5% of his shots – and half of his efforts on target.
5. Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
21.5% shot conversion (14 goals)
While he’s improved in almost all areas, Sterling’s shooting has come a particularly long way since his Liverpool days. Once cutting a nervous figure in front of goal, the 23-year-old now routinely punishes opponents in and around the penalty area.
Sterling has scored 20 times in all competitions this season, with his improved finishing a key reason for Pep Guardiola’s side’s success in the Premier League. Before this campaign his shot conversion across five years with Liverpool and Manchester City was just 11%; in 2017/18, Sterling is twice as clinical.
4. Jamie Vardy (Leicester)
21.7% shot conversion (10 goals)
Four of the Leicester striker’s 14 league goals in 2017-18 have come from the penalty spot, but he’s also outdoing his xG tally. That’s just what Gareth Southgate wants to hear, because Vardy could be very important to England’s chances at the World Cup.
Even if he's defined by his counter-attacking qualities, there’s no use in a Plan B with Emile Heskey’s shooting boots. And there’s nobody available to the Three Lions boss who has a superior conversion rate.
3. Wayne Rooney (Everton)
21.9% shot conversion (7 goals)
Oh, hello. What are your plans this summer, Wayne? Don’t suppose you fancy a trip to Russia?
Rooney is a surprise entrant in this top 20, even if he’s had the fewest non-penalty shots of any player featured here. Despite regularly playing in a withdrawn or even central midfield role, the former Manchester United man has demonstrated excellent accuracy whenever he’s fired at goal. Only two players in the Premier League can better the 32-year-old’s 21.9% conversion rate.
2. Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
22.2% shot conversion (8 goals)
It was always going to take something special to put Sergio Aguero’s place at Manchester City under threat, but the Argentine frontman has been deposed in several games by Jesus, who’s working miracles that would make his namesake say: “Well, it’s not water into wine, but I guess you could call it impressive.”
Injury has limited the 20-year-old Brazilian to 13 starts and eight substitute outings in 2017-18, hence his low shot count of just 36 attempts. Pep Guardiola will be delighted he’s making them count.
1. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
23.5% shot conversion (27 goals)
Few were sure just how good a signing Salah would be for Liverpool last summer, but even the man himself surely wouldn’t have anticipated scoring 28 goals before the end of March.
The ex-Chelsea and Roma forward averages 3.9 shots per game – only Harry Kane takes more – and he’s smashing xG predictions all the same. Despite that, he’s often still accused of wasting numerous chances, but a 23.5% shot conversion rate proves how deadly he's been in 2017-18.
