Premier League transfer deadline day: Rating how likely it is each team will make a signing before the window closes

The January transfer window has been an intriguing one, with clubs completing much fewer deals in comparison to previous seasons.  

Naturally, the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules (PSRs) have been at the forefront of each side's minds, especially with both Everton and Nottingham Forest admitting to breaching the £105m spending limit over the past three years.

Deadline Day often throws up plenty of surprises, though, as struggling sides look to turn their season's around with new transfers. The midweek Premier League fixtures could certainly put issues into perspective, too, so expect some last-minute scrambling right up until the deadline on Thursday. 

But which teams will likely be doing business? FourFourTwo takes a look...

Premier League transfer deadline day

Arsenal

While the Gunners have failed to make a January signing so far, Arsenal have spent the majority of the month being heavily with a new striker and left-back. Ivan Toney and Marc Cucurella dominated reports, but neither look likely at this stage.

That doesn't mean Mikel Arteta is resigned to not completing any business, though. The Spaniard admitted in his press conference on Monday that while transfers are currently very difficult to complete, he would ideally want to add more bodies to his depleted squad. 

"At the moment, it is very difficult. We are really short. We have positions that we have been very exposed for the last six weeks and hopefully we are going to get players back. In what condition and when?

"It is a very, very tricky market that shifts very quickly and it is quite unpredictable as well – and you have to be prepared. We will be prepared and we will try to make the right calls. If there is something that we can do to improve the squad and that needs appear, and we cannot fulfil it with players here, we are always going to be open to do that because we want to be stronger."

Deadline day signing chances: 3/10

Aston Villa

After three rejected bids, Aston Villa are finally on the verge of signing Morgan Rogers from Middlesbrough for £15m. The forward only moved to the Riverside for £1.5m from Manchester City in the summer, but has impressed the hierarchy at Villa enough to make him their priority.

Further incomings aren't out of the question, either, with the possible sale of Jacob Ramsey opening the door for more new faces. With the midfielder representing pure profit on the balance sheet Villa could look to capitalise on the situation.

Unai Emery has already stated publicly that he doesn't want to lose the 22-year-old, though, despite bids of over £50m being suggested from Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United and Bayern Munich. 

Deadline day signing chances: 2/10

Bournemouth

Keeping hold of Dominic Solanke seemed the priority for Bournemouth this window, and it seems like they'll be successful in doing so. After spending over £100m last summer, don't expect to see the Cherries to go mad in the last few days and launch bids in a desperate attempt at survival - simply because they don't need to.

Kieffer Moore and David Brooks both look set to spend the rest of the campaign on loan in the Championship, though, with the former linked with Cardiff City and Sunderland, while Southampton are close to adding the latter to their squad.

Deadline day signing chances: 2/10

Brentford

Brentford are currently in a state of limbo, having agreed a deal with Club Brugge for the signing of Antonio Nusa, only to discover complications with his medical. While they intended to send the £25m signing back to Belgium on loan for the rest of the season, they might start looking elsewhere to spend their cash instead.

The Bees could be keen on signing Ibrahim Osman from Danish side Nordsjaelland as an alternative to Nusa, but will face competition from other Premier League teams.

Deadline day signing chances: 7/10

Brighton & Hove Albion

While Brentford are interested in Ibrahim Osman from Nordsjaelland, Brighton have made an official £20m approach for the winger after his move to West Ham fell through. There are issues over his representatives, however, complicating any potential deal as the Danish Football Federation insisted that dual-representation is against the rules of football agency.

Elsewhere, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has seemingly turned down the chance to move to the south coast, instead preferring to stay at Leicester to try and help the Foxes gain promotion immediately back to the Premier League. 

Deadline day signing chances: 8/10

Burnley

Despite their precarious league position, Burnley have refused to panic this January, bringing in just David Datro Fofana on loan from Chelsea. French defender Maxime Esteve is being linked with a move from Montpellier now, however, as Vincent Kompany looks to add some steel to his leaky defence.

Work is certainly being done behind the scenes, too, with Kompany not shy in letting it be known that he wants to bolster his side. 

"It’s a good question, it depends on the hour you ask me," the Belgian boss said in his press conference. "Seriously. There are moving pieces, I’m not going to deny it. The recruitment team is putting in a shift to try and make the squad stronger. There’s still a few calls coming in for our players as well, so we’ll see.

“I have been focused on the game against Man City [on Wednesday night] but I get the information at the end of the day."

Deadline day signing chances: 9/10

Chelsea

After splurging over £1bn in the last three transfer windows, surely it can't be that Chelsea have learned the errors of their ways? Well, perhaps not, with the PSRs constraining their expenditure, but that hasn't stopped them trying. Despite their efforts, Mauricio Pochettino made it clear that any incomings are unlikely.

"We are quiet," he said. "The market is quiet."

Armando Broja and Conor Gallagher could both still leave before the window closes, though - meaning anything is happy with Todd Boehly and a big wad of cash. 

Deadline day signing chances: ?/10

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have kicked into gear in the final week of the window, first adding Daniel Munoz at right-back for finally agreeing a £22m fee with Blackburn Rovers for Adam Wharton. 

The Eagles had hoped at one point to bring in Kalvin Phillips on loan, but Roy Hodgson has since admitted that the midfielder's preference was West Ham United. 

"It’s not easy to find the right person," Hodgson said. "Phillips became impossible for us when West Ham showed their hand and wanted to take him – he preferred to go there. We have to accept that."

Deadline day signing chances: 1/10

Everton

While Juventus forward Timothy Weah rejected a loan move to Goodison Park, Chuba Akpom has been linked with a return to English football - with Everton fighting for his signature on a temporary deal. 

Selling high-profile players on deadline day - as has happened in the last two windows - isn't on the cards, either.

“I just don’t think we are in that space at the moment, we don’t need to be in that space [of selling players cheaply]." Sean Dyche said. "I think the club can at least control its finances at this time. I’ve certainly not been told we have to do anything other than crack on with what we’re doing, concentrate on the team and winning games.”

Deadline day signing chances: 4/10

Fulham

Armando Broja is certainly of interest to the Fulham hierarchy, but Chelsea are either seeking a permanent deal, or a loan move with an obligation to buy, with the figure cited at £50m. The Cottagers are, at the moment, keen on neither aspects of the deal, but Marco Silva still wants a striker for the rest of the season. 

"To be honest with you, I am not expecting many things towards the end of the market," Silva said after Tuesday's 0-0 draw with Everton. "If it was possible to do something, we should have done it at the beginning of the window because we had a [Carabao Cup] semi-final to play and the FA Cup [fourth round].

"The board are trying to do their best but if you ask me if we are going to do many things at the end of the market, then no. I will not talk about players that are not our players and rumours."

Deadline day signing chances: 6/10

Liverpool

Liverpool certainly have money to spend, as proved last summer when they agreed a £115m deal with Brighton for Moises Caicedo, before he ended up choosing Chelsea, but whether they do or not is an entirely different story. 

With Jurgen Klopp leaving in the summer, the Reds might hold off on any new signings to give the incoming manager the best possible chance to succeed with players they want. Plus, Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah are all out of contract in 18 months time, which is much more of a pressing issue they'll need funds for.

Deadline day signing chances: 4/10

Luton Town

Luton Town don't look like dipping into the transfer market in the final few hours, with their 4-0 win over Brighton suggesting they're more than capable of competing in the Premier League. Rob Edwards stated earlier in the window that he didn't want to do much transfer business, for fear of disrupting his squad dynamic.

And the Hatters boss has stuck to that, only adding right-back Daiki Hashioka to the team, with Tom Holmes loaned back to Reading for the rest of the season.

Deadline day signing chances: 1/10

Manchester City

Manchester City and Pep Guardiola often don't make major signings in the January transfer window, instead preferring to wait until the summer to conduct their business - and 2024 seems no different.

After adding youngster Claudio Echeverri to the squad last week, rumours linking City with another move have completely died down. With Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland both returning from injury, it'd just be greedy buying even more talent, too. 

Deadline day signing chances: 0/10

Manchester United

Manchester United are notorious for panicking on transfer deadline day, and with a back-up striker still in their sights, it's certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that they'll add a new player to the squad before Thursday's cut-off. 

While Erik ten Hag claims financial restrictions are limiting the club's ability to act in the market, a number of players have headed out on loan this window. As a result, minimal funds have been freed up to potentially bring in a new player on a temporary basis.

“I looked but there is no space,” United boss Ten Hag said. “No space on FFP to do something about this lack of quantity in the striker position."

Deadline day signing chances: 7/10

Newcastle United

A number of Newcastle players have been linked with moves away from St. James' Park this January, but so far nothing has materialised. Therefore, there's been no funds available to make signings of their own, despite clearly wanting to bolster the squad with more quality.

Eddie Howe said that any approach for Jacob Ramsey was "incorrect", before suggesting that there's a stronger possibility of no new signings with each passing hour. He refused to ruled out any chance of a deal being done though. 

"The prospect of no new arrivals increases with every hour as the deadline looms," Howe said. 

"I think it is a complex situation so I don't think anything is clear-cut. All eventualities can happen, but probably what we won't do is bring a player in without losing one the other way, I think that would be impossible. I think all other options could still happen. We are waiting to see what happens. I don't want to comment on individual names I don't think that is right."

Deadline day signing chances: 3/10

Nottingham Forest

With Nuno Espirito Santo's main focus being on letting players leave, Forest have acted unusually quiet this January. Despite that, Giovanni Reyna is joining on loan from Borussia Dortmund before the deadline as he looks to reignite his career. 

There's potential for a new goalkeeper to arrive, too. Nottingham Forest had a bid rejected by Crystal Palace for Sam Johnstone earlier in the window, and might go back into the market for a 'keeper before the deadline. They are limited due to falling foul of PSRs, however, and will be wary of overstepping the financial limit once more. Still, it's Forest, so anything could happen.

Deadline day signing chances: 6/10

Sheffield United

It seems inevitable that Sheffield United will add at least another new player to their squad before the deadline, with Chris Wilder coming out before defeat to Crystal Palace highlighting the side's need for incomings.

"It's vital we have someone that has played in this division or played at a level that is equivalent to the Premier League," Wilder said. "We are working frantically to improve our group and hopefully we will do that before the window closes."

Goalkeeper Wes Foderingham could leave, after the arrival of Ivo Grbic has ousted him from the No.1 spot.

Deadline day signing chances: 10/10

Tottenham

While Spurs are consistently linked with new players, such as Conor Gallagher and Antonio Nusa - prior to Brentford stealing in - Ange Postecoglou has clarified that the club aren't expecting to make any new signings.

After getting their business complete early in the window, the focus at Tottenham now seems on getting players who aren't in Postecoglou's plans out of the door, such as Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Bryan Gil.

“I don’t see any incomings,” Postecoglou said. “Outgoings might be a little bit different, because I’m not totally engaged with that, and other people are doing the work around that. I’d say unlikely on both fronts, without ruling anything out.”

Deadline day signing chances: 3/10

West Ham United

With the Hammers having agreed to let Said Benrahma join Lyon on loan for the rest of the season, David Moyes is either content with his current squad or confident that he'll be able to make a transfer before the window closes. Indeed, Al-Ittihad Jota has been linked with a move to West Ham, with negotiations currently underway.

A deal is also close for the aforementioned Ibrahim Osman from Danish side Nordsjaelland, but complications with the deal are holding up its completion at the moment. Regardless, Moyes is expecting a couple of additions. 

Deadline day signing chances: 8/10

Wolves

Wolves have already had a bid for Armando Broja rejected this transfer window, and while it seems they'll be priced out of a move, it highlights their need for a striker for the second half of the campaign. Gary O'Neil is also adamant that the club will bring in new faces, having had to involve youngsters for a number of weeks now.

"I am hopeful (of making additions) and the recruitment team know how important it is," O'Neil said. "We are short. When making subs when Pedro is coming off the pitch, it's tough. 

"We have Tawanda (Chirewa) making his Premier League debut or Nathan Fraser, it's very difficult to make changes at this moment without taking something away from the group. Hopefully we can add a little bit in those areas."

Deadline day signing chances: 9/10